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Duke Energy Tropical Outlook - 7/30/2020
July 30, 2020Duke Energy
Below is a weather update concerning Tropical Storm Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs.) It is still too early to determine what, if any, impacts Tropical Storm Isaias may have on South Carolina, but we encourage everyone to review your emergency plans.
PTC 9 was finally upgraded to Tropical Storm Isaias late last night, becoming the 9th name storm of the season, and has strengthen slightly overnight. However, there are some discrepancies to where exactly the low-level circulation is and may be disconnected from the mid-level development. This lends to a complex evolution through Friday as the system passes over Hispaniola moving west-northwestward to northwestward. Isaias is expected to slow in forward speed as it interacts with the weekending subtropical ridge and a trough deepening toward the Southeastern US.
The center of the storm will likely become disorganized over Hispaniola’s high terrain, but mid-level energy closer to Puerto Rico this morning is forecast to pass along the north coast of Hispaniola later today. Most model guidance suggest that this feature will cause the re-development of a surface center over the northern part of the broader system while moving west-northwestward closing in on the southeastern Bahamas. The storm will then move northwestward until the weekend, and gradually turn northward and then northeastward close to the US Southeast coast into early next week ahead of a mid-latitude trough. However, the storm’s evolution along and re-development north of Hispaniola is crucial to Isaias’ future intensity and path forward.
Currently, the National Hurricane Center shows Isaias nearing Miami around Saturday midday, turn northward very near the Atlantic Coast, or near West Palm Beach very early Sunday morning, then pivoting northeastward offshore the Southeast US coastline. The uncertainty pertains to how strong Isaias will be as it approaches the Southeast US coast. A stronger storm over the Bahamas may turn northward sooner, but a mid-level tropical storm could move inland extreme southeast Florida, move north inland and then exit northeast FL. Confidence is slightly higher today, but remains below average on the future track and intensity. The thought is that confidence will increase markedly tomorrow morning once the storm passes over Hispaniola and reemerges in the adjacent Atlantic waters.
As a reminder, the National Weather Service is your official weather provider.
Take care and stay safe!Contact:Mindy Taylormindy.taylor@duke-energy.com, (800) 452-2777
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